To my father-in-law

My husband's father called last night, and after talking about the kids for a long time, he started talking about one of his new favorite topics, the economy and how bad it was. I became a bit snarky (for me, he may not have noticed) and started playing devil's advocate for a while. I should not have done that, it was not helpful for either of us I think. I'm sorry. But I have been getting more and more annoyed about the discussion on the radio of the economy, and I've tried to figure out why.

Here's what I've come up with:

• Everyone seems so surprised that there is likely to be a recession. I personally have been predicting this recession since I was in seventh grade and the stock market crashed. Occasionally it looked like one of the past recessions was going to be The One, but they never ended up as terrible as I thought they would. If a seventh grader can look forward and say, "sometime in my lifetime the country will go through horrible economic trouble," why do all the radio experts seem surprised?
  
• Many people seem to think that this is going to be the worst downturn ever. It is possible that this is true: however, I don't think we are in nearly as dire straits as we were in the Great Depression. On the other hand, it is not likely that the worst economic problems our country has had are behind us, just statistically speaking (of course, this depends on whether you think the world is coming to an end imminently or at some time in the long distant future). Every serious downturn is the worst for some reason. That said, the downturn that affects you personally is the worst ever.
  
• When people disagree about the causes or solutions for the economic problems, they imply that the other side is immoral, stupid, greedy, and has no understanding of what the real problem is. Here's some news: intelligent people can take the same inputs, mix it with some of their own analysis of the past, and come to different conclusions without any moral implications. Everyone has their own presuppositions (like, "Government is the only actor big enough to solve this problem" or "Government is historically very bad at solving huge economic problems") but most analysts are not trying to help out their friends in big oil, for example, they are trying to figure out what is the best course for the country. You might disagree with their conclusions, but at least give them the benefit of the doubt that they came to them honestly.
  
• When people talk about solutions for the problem, they assume that their solutions will work. My father-in-law pointed out that one of the reasons we may have gotten into this mess is the loosening of trade restrictions. On the one hand, the global boat rose and we in the US have access to cheaper clothes, electronics, and useless junk. On the other hand, sectors of the US economy are completely broken, and it is unclear how to fix it. The economy is complicated, and what seems like a simple solution will almost definitely fail or cause some other unintended consequences. On the other hand, we can never know what would have happened if we hadn't pursued that policy...
• The media is calling this a crisis. What word will they use when unemployment gets to 10 percent and the economy has been shrinking for 2 years? My grandma once told me that the stock market always seems to be falling. This was when the market was hitting record highs! But she only saw (and the media only reported on) market drops. I am very frustrated with the apparent glee with which the media is over reporting on every slight problem, while ignoring bright spots (like the foreclosure rate falling in NC...) My husband would tell me not to be surprised, why should I expect anything different. I suppose he has a point, but it is still frustrating.
  

I come out of this discussion confused and a bit hopeless. Here are my conclusions, for what they are worth:

• In general, recessions are caused by sin (or greed or other moral failings, if you don't believe in sin) committed by everyone (including me) and are not avoidable, although it may be possible to mitigate the ending.
  
• My major responsibility for this recession is to look after my neighbor (i.e., individual people (who I know personally or through organizations) who need my help) and not to try to solve the global problem.
  
• I have a responsibility to live frugally, which I am not living up to at all right now (but I'm working on it!)
  
• That said, I do have a responsibility to look at what the global leaders are doing and point out things that will make things worse, when they are obvious.
• We need to teach more personal finance in schools. Anyone who gets an adjustable rate mortgage when interest rates are historically low is not thinking clearly (ok, almost anyone---I can see that there are some situations where it might be necessary.) Right now I'm trying to teach my 5-year old that you can't spend money twice. Many college students (and older people ) haven't learned this lesson.

So the other problem with my posts is that I feel the need to add the kitchen sink. I think I'll stop here, even though I'm sure there is more I could have said. I'm also not editing it closely, since I need to shower before my 1 year old wakes up. Take it for what it's worth.